Wednesday, May 30, 2007
What Motivates the US and Iran
Interesting stuff. It appears as though the US is attempting to gain some leverage by going on the offensive (clanestine) against the Iranian governement. If it produces some degree of pressure, then the Iranian's might be interested in a negotiated cease fire in Iraq. I cannot imagine that the US has the ability to covertly pressure the Iranian government and that such an effort would produce helpful results.
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The notion that the US can do anything more then shoot itself in the foot with clandestine support of violent Iranian dissident groups is silly. The types of groups that we could support are people we do not want to be associated with and have more in common with the Al-qauda then any reformist group. Further, these violent ethnic minority dissident groups stand absolutely no chance of toppling the Iranian Shiite government. You we would think we would have learned our lesson about supporting extremist Sunni groups.
Whatever minor pressure we can bring to bear on Iran through these actions will be wiped out by the diplomatic loss that having our actions revealed will create. We are not going to topple the Iranian regime through violent action. We are going to topple it by letting their reformist movement work from the inside and providing only minor and quiet support.
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