Monday, April 28, 2008

Victory Delayed?

I like the idea Jon puts forth that Hillary is really working toward a defeat of Obama in the general election so that she can come back in 4-years and say "I told you he could not win." I think this is a very plausible strategy on her part, particularly when considered in light of other two other possibilities that easily align with this approach.

First is the possibility that something could happen to derail Obama's clear lead. Possibilities include events as extreme as his assignation to as mild as disenfranchisement of his followers caused by a bombastic ex-pastor. Events beyond Hillary's making could easily sink Obama's run for the candidacy and make her the facto victor because she is the last politician standing. America's infatuation with Obama is built upon the idea that he will not rub America's ugly racial past in the face of potential supporters.

The second possibility is that her efforts could defeat Obama and that she could win against the old white guy McCain.

What this view suggest is that Hillary wins even if she looses.

Sunday, April 27, 2008

Clinton, Looking For Victory Delayed

I just read this article and found one piece of speculation interesting. What if Clinton is trying to make Obama lose? Why you ask? Imagine the effect of Obama winning. If Obama wins, the leadership of the party will pass to him. For at least the next 8 years, even if he only serves one term, everyone else is locked out of the top spot.

Now step back and look at the Clinton's. If their paths towards the White House was conscious, and I think it was, an Obama victory would kill Clinton path to ownership of the party and diminish their legacy. Clinton can come back to run after a Obama loses the presidency. She can't come back if Obama wins. If Obama runs and doesn't win, Clinton is back in four years. Perhaps this, and not fears that mean old John McCain will win are the real reason for her destructive efforts to take down Obama and her refusal to concede defeat. It could be that she fully realizes that she can't win the nomination, but that this is the pretense she can use to continue her attacks and cripple Obama's momentum.

It could very well be that Clinton has stayed in as long as she has not so that she can win this election, but to win the next. If a crippled Obama gets torn apart by John McCain, Hillary will be there four years later wagging her finger saying, "I told you so, now make the right decision this time."